Stock futures gain on hopes for "fiscal cliff" deal

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock futures rose on Tuesday, indicating equities could extend a rally that took them to nearly two-month highs on growing optimism over a "fiscal cliff" deal.


Stocks have struggled for direction in recent weeks, with investors reluctant to make big bets in the face of uncertainty over the cliff, a combination of steep tax hikes and spending cuts that could hurt the U.S. economy if they take effect next year. Moves have been muted over the past weeks, with volume anemic.


Hopes for a deal grew on Monday night as President Barack Obama made a counter-offer to Republicans that included a major change in position on tax hikes for the wealthy, according to a source familiar with the talks.


That report followed a meeting between Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner, who has edged closer to Obama's position by proposing to extend lower tax rates for everyone who earns less than $1 million.


Many investors fear that going over the fiscal cliff could push the U.S. economy back into recession, an outcome that would also pressure global growth and sap demand for commodities.


"Neither side appears to be digging in their heels so much, and that increases the optimism there might be a deal," said Oliver Pursche, president of Gary Goldberg Financial Services in Suffern, New York. "Political risks have been the main thing suppressing market gains, so if those abate we could see a rally that is significant."


S&P 500 futures rose 5.5 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures added 30 points and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 18 points.


European shares <.fteu3> rose 0.3 percent on Monday, while January crude futures were up 0.6 percent. The MSCI index of global stocks <.miwd00000pus> rose 0.2 percent.


While the cliff has been the primary driver for markets, tech shares will also be in view as Oracle Corp reports results after the market closes. The company is seen posting profit growth of more than 10 percent but a 2.3 percent dip in revenue, according to Thomson Reuters data.


Reporting quarterly results early on Tuesday, Sanderson Farms Inc posted a better-than-expected profit, helped by rising poultry prices. Jefferies Group is on tap to report later in the day.


The New York Times late Monday said that Wal-Mart Stores Inc's Mexican affiliate routinely used bribes to open stores in desirable locations. The story cited 19 instances of the retail giant paying off local officials. In a statement Monday night, Wal-Mart spokesman David Tovar said the company was looking into the allegations.


Arbitron Inc surged 25 percent to $47.60 in premarket trading after Nielsen Holdings NV agreed to buy the media and marketing research firm in a deal worth $1.26 billion.


U.S. third-quarter current account figures are due to be released at 8:30 a.m. (1330 GMT). Economists in a Reuters survey forecast a $103.4 billion deficit versus a deficit of $117.4 billion in Q2.


Hopes for a fiscal cliff deal lifted shares on Monday, breaking a two-day decline for the S&P. The Dow and Nasdaq surged more than 1 percent in Monday's session, while all 10 S&P 500 sectors ended higher.


(Editing by Kenneth Barry)



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Syrian vice president says neither side can win war


BEIRUT (Reuters) - Syrian Vice President Farouq al-Sharaa said that neither the forces of President Bashar al-Assad nor rebels seeking to overthrow him can win the war which is now being fought on the outskirts of Assad's powerbase in Damascus.


Sharaa, a Sunni Muslim in a power structure dominated by Assad's Alawite minority, has rarely been seen since the Syrian revolt erupted in March 2011 and is not part of the president's inner circle directing the fight against Sunni rebels.


But he is the most prominent figure to say in public that Assad will not win. He was speaking to the pro-Assad al-Akhbar paper in an interview from Damascus which is now hemmed in by rebel fighters to the south.


Assad's forces have used jets and artillery to try to dislodge the fighters from around Damascus but the violence has crept into the heart of the capital and rebels announced on Sunday a new offensive in the central province of Hama.


Sharaa said the situation in Syria, where more than 40,000 people have been killed, was deteriorating and a "historic settlement" was needed to end the conflict, involving regional powers and the U.N. Security Council and the formation of a national unity government "with broad powers".


"With every passing day the political and military solutions are becoming more distant. We should be in a position defending the existence of Syria. We are not in a battle for an individual or a regime," Sharaa was quoted as saying.


"The opposition cannot decisively settle the battle and what the security forces and army units are doing will not achieve a decisive settlement," he told the paper, adding that the insurgents fighting to topple Syria's leadership could plunge it into "anarchy and an unending spiral of violence".


Sources close to the Syrian government say Sharaa had pushed for dialogue with the opposition and objected to the military response to an uprising that began peacefully.


In Damascus, residents said on Monday the army had told people to evacuate the Palestinian district of Yarmouk, suggesting an all-out military offensive on the southern district was imminent.


The centre of the city, largely insulated from the violence for 21 months, is now full of army and vigilante checkpoints and shakes to the sound of regular shelling, residents say.


Queues for bread form at bakeries hours before dawn, as people seek out dwindling supplies, power cuts are increasing and fears are growing that Damascus could descend into chaos.


In a veiled criticism of the crackdown, Sharaa said there was a difference between the state's duty to provide security to its citizens, and "pursuing a security solution to the crisis."


He said even Assad could not be certain where events in Syria were leading, but that anyone who met him would hear that "this is a long struggle...and he does not hide his desire to settle matters militarily to reach a final solution."


CHANGE INEVITABLE


"We realize today that change is inevitable," Sharaa said, but "none of the peaceful or armed opposition groups with their known foreign links can call themselves the sole legitimate representative of the Syrian people".


"Likewise the current leadership...cannot achieve change alone after two years of crisis without new partners who contribute to preserving (Syria's) national fabric, territorial unity and regional sovereignty".


Rebels have now brought the war to the capital, without yet delivering a fatal blow to the government. But nor has Assad found the military muscle to oust his opponents from the city.


In Paris, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius of France, one of the powers most insistent that Assad has lost his legitimacy, said: "I think the end is nearing for Bashar al-Assad."


On the ground, rebels said they were launching an operation to seize the central province of Hama to try to link northern rural areas of Syria under their control to the center.


Qassem Saadeddine, a member of the newly established rebel military command, said fighters had been ordered to surround and attack checkpoints across the province. He said forces loyal to Assad had been given 48 hours to surrender or be killed.


"When we liberate the countryside of Hama province ... then we will have the area between Aleppo and Hama liberated and open for us," he told Reuters.


The city of Hama in the province of the same name has a special resonance for anti-Assad activists. In 1982 Hafez al-Assad, father of the current ruler, crushed an uprising in the city, killing up to 30,000 civilians.


In Damascus, activists said fighter jets bombed the Yarmouk Palestinian refugee camp on Sunday, killing at least 25 people sheltering in a mosque.


The attack was part of a month-old campaign by Assad's forces to eject rebels from positions they are establishing around the capital's perimeter. Yarmouk, to the south, falls within an arc of territory running from the east of Damascus to the southwest from where rebels hope to storm the government's main redoubt.


MOSQUE HIT


Opposition activists said the deaths in Yarmouk, to which refugees have fled from fighting in nearby suburbs, resulted from a rocket fired from a warplane hitting the mosque.


Footage showed bodies and body parts scattered on the stairs of what appeared to be the mosque.


The latest battlefield accounts could not be independently verified due to tight restrictions on media access to Syria.


Syria is home to more than 500,000 Palestinian refugees, most living in Yarmouk, and both Assad's government and the rebels have enlisted and armed Palestinians as the uprising, which began as a peaceful street movement 21 months ago, has mushroomed into a civil war.


After Sunday's air raid, clashes flared between Palestinians from the pro-Assad Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) and rebels including other Palestinian fighters and some PFLP-GC fighters were killed.


In the latest of a string of military installations to fall to the rebels, the army's infantry college north of Aleppo was captured on Saturday after five days of fighting, a rebel commander with the powerful Islamist Tawheed Brigade said.


(Additional reporting by Dominic Evans; Editing by Samia Nakhoul and Anna Willard)



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President Obama Meets with Grieving Families









12/17/2012 at 07:20 AM EST







President Barack Obama on Dec. 14


Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty


At an interfaith memorial service in Newton, Conn., for those lost in Friday's Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting, an emotional President Obama told the grieving audience, "We can't tolerate this anymore," and vowed "in the coming weeks I'll use whatever power this office holds" in "preventing more tragedies like this."

As he told the 1,000 people, including the surviving families, as he spoke on the stark stage of Newtown High School Sunday night, the President said, "I can only hope it helps for you to know that you're not alone. … Across this land of ours, we have wept with you."

And he pledged, "These tragedies must end. And to end them, we must change."

Noting this was the fourth time in his presidency the nation has had to deal with senseless acts of gun violence, the President said it was "the fourth time we've hugged survivors. The fourth time we've consoled the families of victims.

"There have been an endless series of deadly shootings across the country, almost daily reports of victims, many of them children. Much of the time, their only fault was being in the wrong place at the wrong time."

He added, "We will be told that the causes of such violence are complex, and that is true. No single law, no set of laws can eliminate evil from the world or prevent every senseless act of violence in our society. … But that can't be an excuse for inaction."

The President asked, "Are we really prepared to say that we're powerless in the face of such carnage, that the politics are too hard? Are we prepared to say that such violence visited on our children year after year after year is the price of our freedom?"

Privately, the President met with the relatives of about 15 of those gunned down Friday and with first-responders. He also held the granddaughter of the slain school principal, Dawn Hochsprung, and Hochsprung's daughter, Cristina Hassinger, Tweeted with a photo of the President with the little girl: “My mom would be so proud to see President Obama holding her granddaughter. But not as proud as I am of her."

His speech cited the heroics of the six Sandy Hook school personnel who sacrificed their own lives trying to protect the children.

As audible sobs were heard from the audience, Obama closed his words by reading the first names of all those killed.

Seven funerals are planned to take place in Newtown on Monday. More will follow in the coming weeks.

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Experts: No link between Asperger's, violence


NEW YORK (AP) — While an official has said that the 20-year-old gunman in the Connecticut school shooting had Asperger's syndrome, experts say there is no connection between the disorder and violence.


Asperger's is a mild form of autism often characterized by social awkwardness.


"There really is no clear association between Asperger's and violent behavior," said psychologist Elizabeth Laugeson, an assistant clinical professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.


Little is known about Adam Lanza, identified by police as the shooter in the Friday massacre at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school. He fatally shot his mother before going to the school and killing 20 young children, six adults and himself, authorities said.


A law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to discuss the unfolding investigation, said Lanza had been diagnosed with Asperger's.


High school classmates and others have described him as bright but painfully shy, anxious and a loner. Those kinds of symptoms are consistent with Asperger's, said psychologist Eric Butter of Nationwide Children's Hospital in Columbus, Ohio, who treats autism, including Asperger's, but has no knowledge of Lanza's case.


Research suggests people with autism do have a higher rate of aggressive behavior — outbursts, shoving or pushing or angry shouting — than the general population, he said.


"But we are not talking about the kind of planned and intentional type of violence we have seen at Newtown," he said in an email.


"These types of tragedies have occurred at the hands of individuals with many different types of personalities and psychological profiles," he added.


Autism is a developmental disorder that can range from mild to severe. Asperger's generally is thought of as a mild form. Both autism and Asperger's can be characterized by poor social skills, repetitive behavior or interests and problems communicating. Unlike classic autism, Asperger's does not typically involve delays in mental development or speech.


Experts say those with autism and related disorders are sometimes diagnosed with other mental health problems, such as depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder or obsessive-compulsive disorder.


"I think it's far more likely that what happened may have more to do with some other kind of mental health condition like depression or anxiety rather than Asperger's," Laugeson said.


She said those with Asperger's tend to focus on rules and be very law-abiding.


"There's something more to this," she said. "We just don't know what that is yet."


After much debate, the term Asperger's is being dropped from the diagnostic manual used by the nation's psychiatrists. In changes approved earlier this month, Asperger's will be incorporated under the umbrella term "autism spectrum disorder" for all the ranges of autism.


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AP Writer Matt Apuzzo contributed to this report.


___


Online:


Asperger's information: http://1.usa.gov/3tGSp5


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Stock futures mixed as "cliff" and Apple eyed


NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stock futures were mixed on Monday as "fiscal cliff" negotiations saw their first real movement over the weekend, but Apple was likely to weigh on the market.


* Republican House Speaker John Boehner edged slightly closer to President Barack Obama's key demands as they try to avert the tax hikes and spending cuts that are set to take effect in the new year.


* Sources familiar with the talks confirmed that Boehner proposed extending low tax rates for everyone who has earned less than $1 million, and rates would rise for wages above that. But Boehner's new positions were still far from those held by Obama.


* Uncertainty over when and if a deal will be done has kept investors cautious in what is normally a quiet trading period heading into year-end.


* Apple Inc was down 1.6 percent at $501.50 as Citigroup cut its rating to 'neutral' from 'buy' and slashed its price target to $575 from $675. The stock had earlier been indicated to open below $500, which would be the first time since February.


* Apple shares have tumbled nearly 30 percent in about three months, losing 3.8 percent on Friday alone, helping lead the overall market lower.


* S&P 500 futures rose 3.3 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration of the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures added 20 points but Nasdaq 100 futures fell 4.5 points.


* Sprint Nextel Corp said it would buy Clearwire for $2.97 a share.


* American International Group Inc may raise as much as $6.5 billion from the sale of its remaining stake in AIA Group Ltd, exiting a business the U.S. insurer started nearly 100 years ago.


* Networking equipment company Cisco Systems Inc has hired Barclays to sell its Linksys home router unit, a report said on Sunday.


(Reporting by Leah Schnurr; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)



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Egyptians narrowly back constitution, say rival camps


CAIRO (Reuters) - Egyptians voted narrowly in favor of a constitution shaped by Islamists but opposed by other groups who fear it will deepen divisions, officials in rival camps said on Sunday after the first round of a two-stage referendum.


Next week's second round is likely to give another "yes" vote as it includes districts seen as more sympathetic towards Islamists, analysts say, meaning the constitution would be approved.


But a close win, if confirmed, would give Islamist President Mohamed Mursi only limited cause for celebration as it would show a wide rift in a country where he needs to build consensus on tough measures to fix a fragile economy.


The Muslim Brotherhood's party, which propelled Mursi to office in a June election, said 56.5 percent backed the text. Official results are not expected till after the next round.


Mursi and his backers say the constitution is vital to move Egypt's democratic transition forward. Opponents say the basic law is too Islamist and tramples on minority rights, including those of Christians who make up 10 percent of the population.


The build-up to Saturday's vote was marred by deadly protests. Demonstrations erupted when Mursi awarded himself extra powers on November 22 and then fast-tracked the constitution through an assembly dominated by his Islamist allies.


However, the vote passed off calmly with long queues in Cairo and several other places, though unofficial tallies indicated turnout was around a third of the 26 million people eligible to vote this time. The vote was staggered because many judges needed to oversee polling staged a boycott in protest.


The opposition had said the vote should not have been held given violent protests in the Arab world's most populous nation, which is watched closely from abroad to see how Islamists, long viewed warily in the West, handle themselves in power.


"It's wrong to have a vote or referendum with the country in the state it is - blood and killings, and no security," said Emad Sobhy, a voter who lives in Cairo. "Holding a referendum with the country as it is cannot give you a proper result."


INCREASINGLY DIVIDED


As polls closed, Islamists attacked the offices of the newspaper of the liberal Wafd party, part of the opposition National Salvation Front coalition that pushed for a "no" vote.


"The referendum was 56.5 percent for the 'yes' vote," a senior official in the Brotherhood's Freedom and Justice Party operations room set up to monitor voting told Reuters.


The Brotherhood and its party had representatives at polling stations across the 10 areas, including Cairo, in this round. The official, who asked not to be identified, said the tally was based on counts from more than 99 percent of polling stations.


"The nation is increasingly divided and the pillars of state are swaying," opposition politician Mohamed ElBaradei wrote on Twitter. "Poverty and illiteracy are fertile grounds for trading with religion. The level of awareness is rising fast."


One opposition official also told Reuters the vote appeared to have gone in favor of Islamists who backed the constitution.


The opposition initially said its exit polls indicated the "no" camp would win comfortably, but officials changed tack during the night. One opposition official in the early hours of Sunday said it would be "very close". There was no formal statement from the opposition National Salvation Front.


"Even if this result is correct, that does not mean that this constitution can pass, because it means more than 40 percent of the people didn't agree with it," said Issam Amin, speaking on a Cairo street and echoing the opposition line that the constitution needed consensus backing not a simple majority.


A narrow loss could still hearten leftists, socialists, Christians and more liberal-minded Muslims who make up the disparate opposition camp, which has been beaten in two elections since Hosni Mubarak was overthrown last year.


They were drawn together to oppose what they saw as Mursi's power grab and his constitution push. The National Salvation Front includes prominent figures such as ElBaradei, former Arab League chief Amr Moussa and firebrand leftist Hamdeen Sabahy.


If the constitution is approved, a parliamentary election will follow early next year. Opposition leaders say the Front could help unite the opposition for that poll after their divided ranks have split the vote in previous elections.


DEADLY VIOLENCE


But analysts question whether the opposition group in this form will survive until a parliamentary election. The Islamist-dominated lower house of parliament elected earlier this year was dissolved based on a court order in June.


Violence in Cairo and other cities has plagued the run-up to the referendum. At least eight people were killed when rival camps clashed during demonstrations outside the presidential palace earlier this month.


Several party buildings belonging to the Muslim Brotherhood's party have been burned by angry protesters in recent weeks. On Friday, a day before the vote, rival factions armed with clubs, knives and swords fought in Alexandria.


In order to pass, the constitution must be approved by more than 50 percent of those casting ballots. There are 51 million were eligible voters in the nation of 83 million.


Rights groups reported some abuses, such as polling stations opening late, officials telling people how to vote and bribery. But Gamal Eid, head of the Arab Network for Human Rights Information, said abuses were not enough to invalidate the vote.


"We accepted the referendum so we accept the result," said Ahmed Mohamed, a Cairene who backed the draft. "If the majority said ‘yes', so be it. I didn't see forgery where I voted."


Islamists have been counting on their disciplined ranks of supporters and on Egyptians desperate for an end to turmoil that has hammered the economy and sent Egypt's pound to eight-year lows against the dollar.


If the constitution is voted down in a second round, which now looks unlikely, a new assembly will be formed to draft a revised version, a process that could take up to nine months.


The army has deployed about 120,000 troops and 6,000 tanks and armored vehicles to protect polling stations and other government buildings. While the military backed Mubarak and his predecessors, it has not intervened in the present crisis.


(Additional reporting by Tamim Elyan, Shaimaa Fayed and Reuters Television; Writing by Edmund Blair and Giles Elgood; Editing by Andrew Heavens)



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Facebook unveils new privacy controls






SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) – Facebook Inc began rolling out a variety of new privacy controls on Wednesday, the company’s latest effort to address user concerns about who can see their personal information on the world’s largest social network.


New tools introduced on Wednesday will make it easier for Facebook’s members to quickly determine who can view the photos, comments and other information about them that appears on different parts of the website, and to request that any objectionable photos they’re featured in be removed.






A new privacy “shortcut” in the top-right hand corner of the website provides quick access to key controls such as allowing users to manage who can contact them and to block specific people.


The new controls are the latest changes to Facebook’s privacy settings, which have been criticized in the past for being too confusing.


Facebook Director of Product Sam Lessin said the changes were designed to increase users’ comfort level on the social network, which has roughly one billion users.


“When users don’t understand the concepts and controls and hit surprises, they don’t build the confidence they need,” said Lessin.


Facebook, Google Inc and other online companies have faced increasing scrutiny and enforcement from privacy regulators as consumers entrust ever-increasing amounts of information about their personal lives to Web services.


In April, Facebook settled privacy charges with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission that it had deceived consumers and forced them to share more personal information than they intended. Under the settlement, Facebook is required to get user consent for certain changes to its privacy settings and is subject to 20 years of independent audits.


Facebook’s Lessin said some users don’t understand that the information they post on their Timeline profile page is not the only personal information about them that may be viewable by others. Improvements to Facebook’s so-called Activity Log will make it easier for users to see at a glance all the information that involves them across the social network.


Facebook also said it is changing the way that third-party apps, such as games and music players, get permission to access user data. An app must now provide separate requests to create a personalized service based on a user’s personal information and to post automated messages to the Facebook newsfeed on behalf of a user – previously users agreed to both conditions by approving a single request.


The revamped controls follow proposed changes that Facebook has made to its privacy policy and terms of service. The changes would allow Facebook to integrate user data with that of its recently acquired photo-sharing app Instagram, and would loosen restrictions on how members of the social network can contact other members using the Facebook email system.


Nearly 600,000 Facebook users voted to reject the proposed changes, but the votes fell far short of the roughly 300 million needed for the vote to be binding, under Facebook’s existing rules. The proposed changes also would eliminate any such future votes by Facebook users.


(Reporting By Alexei Oreskovic)


Internet News Headlines – Yahoo! News


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Donald Faison Marries Cacee Cobb















12/15/2012 at 08:25 PM EST







Cacee Cobb and Donald Faison


Dr. Billy Ingram/WireImage


It's official!

After six years together, Donald Faison and Cacee Cobb were married Saturday night at the Los Angeles home of his Scrubs costar Zach Braff.

Cobb's friend Jessica Simpson was a bridesmaid. Sister Ashlee Simpson also attended.

"What a happy day," Tweeted groomsman Joshua Radin, a singer, who posted a photo of himself with Faison and Braff in their tuxedos.

The couple got engaged in August 2011. At the time, Faison Tweeted, "If you like it then you better put a Ring on it," and Cobb replied, "If she likes it then she better say YES!!"

Since then, the couple had been hard at work planning their wedding. On Nov. 12, Faison, who currently stars on The Exes, Tweeted that they were tasting cocktails to be served on the big day.

"Alcohol tasting for the wedding!" he wrote, adding a photo of the drinks. "The [sic] Ain't Say It Was Going To Be Like This!!!"

This is the first marriage for Cobb. Faison was previously married to Lisa Askey, with whom he has three children. (He also has a son from a previous relationship.)

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Experts: No link between Asperger's, violence


NEW YORK (AP) — While an official has said that the 20-year-old gunman in the Connecticut school shooting had Asperger's syndrome, experts say there is no connection between the disorder and violence.


Asperger's is a mild form of autism often characterized by social awkwardness.


"There really is no clear association between Asperger's and violent behavior," said psychologist Elizabeth Laugeson, an assistant clinical professor at the University of California, Los Angeles.


Little is known about Adam Lanza, identified by police as the shooter in the Friday massacre at a Newtown, Conn., elementary school. He fatally shot his mother before going to the school and killing 20 young children, six adults and himself, authorities said.


A law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity because the person was not authorized to discuss the unfolding investigation, said Lanza had been diagnosed with Asperger's.


High school classmates and others have described him as bright but painfully shy, anxious and a loner. Those kinds of symptoms are consistent with Asperger's, said psychologist Eric Butter of Nationwide Children's Hospital in Columbus, Ohio, who treats autism, including Asperger's, but has no knowledge of Lanza's case.


Research suggests people with autism do have a higher rate of aggressive behavior — outbursts, shoving or pushing or angry shouting — than the general population, he said.


"But we are not talking about the kind of planned and intentional type of violence we have seen at Newtown," he said in an email.


"These types of tragedies have occurred at the hands of individuals with many different types of personalities and psychological profiles," he added.


Autism is a developmental disorder that can range from mild to severe. Asperger's generally is thought of as a mild form. Both autism and Asperger's can be characterized by poor social skills, repetitive behavior or interests and problems communicating. Unlike classic autism, Asperger's does not typically involve delays in mental development or speech.


Experts say those with autism and related disorders are sometimes diagnosed with other mental health problems, such as depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder or obsessive-compulsive disorder.


"I think it's far more likely that what happened may have more to do with some other kind of mental health condition like depression or anxiety rather than Asperger's," Laugeson said.


She said those with Asperger's tend to focus on rules and be very law-abiding.


"There's something more to this," she said. "We just don't know what that is yet."


After much debate, the term Asperger's is being dropped from the diagnostic manual used by the nation's psychiatrists. In changes approved earlier this month, Asperger's will be incorporated under the umbrella term "autism spectrum disorder" for all the ranges of autism.


__


AP Writer Matt Apuzzo contributed to this report.


___


Online:


Asperger's information: http://1.usa.gov/3tGSp5


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Wall Street Week Ahead: Holiday "on standby" as clock ticks on cliff

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The last two weeks of December are traditionally quiet for stocks, but traders accustomed to a bit of time off are staying close to their mobile devices, thanks to the "fiscal cliff."


Last-minute negotiations in Washington on the so-called fiscal cliff - nearly $600 billion of tax increases and spending cuts set to take effect in January that could cause a sharp slowdown in growth or even a recession - are keeping some traders and analysts from taking Christmas holidays because any deal could have a big impact on markets.


"A lot of firms are saying to their trading desks, 'You can take days off for Christmas, but you are on standby to come in if anything happens.' This is certainly different from previous years, especially around this time of the year when things are supposed to be slowing down," said J.J. Kinahan, chief derivatives strategist at TD Ameritrade in Chicago.


"Next week is going to be a Capitol Hill-driven market."


With talks between President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner at an apparent standstill, it was increasingly likely that Washington will not come up with a deal before January 1.


Gordon Charlop, managing director at Rosenblatt Securities in New York, will also be on standby for the holiday season.


"It's a 'Look guys, let's just rotate and be sensible" type of situation going on," Charlop said.


"We are hopeful there is some resolution down there, but it seems to me they continue to walk that political tightrope... rather than coming up with something."


Despite concerns that the deadline will pass without a deal, the S&P 500 has held its ground with a 12.4 percent gain for the year. For this week, though, the S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent.


BEWARE OF THE WITCH


This coming Friday will mark the last so-called "quadruple witching" day of the year, when contracts for stock options, single stock futures, stock index options and stock index futures all expire. This could make trading more volatile.


"We could see some heavy selling as there is going to be a lot of re-establishing of positions, reallocation of assets before the year-end," Kinahan said.


RETHINKING APPLE


Higher tax rates on capital gains and dividends are part of the automatic tax increases that will go into effect next year, if Congress and the White House don't come up with a solution to avert the fiscal cliff. That possibility could give investors an incentive to unload certain stocks in some tax-related selling by December 31.


Some market participants said tax-related selling may be behind the weaker trend in the stock price of market leader Apple . Apple's stock has lost a quarter of its value since it hit a lifetime high of $705.07 on September 21.


On Friday, the stock fell 3.8 percent to $509.79 after the iPhone 5 got a chilly reception at its debut in China and two analysts cut shipment forecasts. But the stock is still up nearly 26 percent for the year.


"If you owned Apple for a long time, you should be thinking about reallocation as there will be changes in taxes and other regulations next year, although we don't really know which rules to play by yet," Kinahan said.


But one indicator of the market's reduced concern about the fiscal cliff compared with a few weeks ago, is the defense sector, which will be hit hard if the spending cuts take effect. The PHLX Defense Sector Index <.dfx> is up nearly 13 percent for the year, and sits just a few points from its 2012 high.


(Reporting by Angela Moon; Additional reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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